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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action

The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are released from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

After-Dark Attacks

As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.

Continuous Dangers

Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.

Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.

Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, continue.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.

Current Realities

Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.

While new proposals based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.